SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 48% of the time
Light positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-54%) is running 1.6σ away from the long-run average of +31%.
30Y Mortgage Rate moves ~12 weeks before Unemployment Rate
Watch 30Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (-15%) vs when both rise (+39%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+41%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks ago?"
647 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+31%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+24% → +37%
Likely range
R²
9.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
47.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
659
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
659 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
938
2,875
Normalized
938
2,875
Prepared
938
2,875
Aligned
659
659
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+39%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
136 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,495
A: 279 / B: 2216
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5686
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.2407
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:mortgage30us|fred:unrate|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive