SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 50% of the time
Light positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
What to Watch
10Y Treasury Yield moves ~12 weeks before Unemployment Rate
Watch 10Y Treasury Yield for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+19%) and fall (-15%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+41%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
10Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with 10Y Treasury Yield 12 weeks ago?"
758 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+30%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+24% → +36%
Likely range
R²
9.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
49.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
770
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
770 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
938
16,066
Normalized
938
16,066
Prepared
938
3,357
Aligned
770
770
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,755
A: 168 / B: 2587
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
36
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5187
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7852
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:unrate|5Y