SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 55% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
Retail Sales
RSAFS
What to Watch
10Y Treasury Yield moves ~12 weeks before Retail Sales
Watch 10Y Treasury Yield for an early read on Retail Sales.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+44%) than when both rise (+12%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y Treasury Yield today line up with Retail Sales 12 weeks from now?"
399 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Retail Sales shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-62%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-67% → -55%
Likely range
R²
38.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
55.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
411
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
411 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,066
411
Normalized
16,066
411
Prepared
3,357
411
Aligned
411
411
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
84 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+44%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
115 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,946
A: 2946 / B: 0
Series A
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Series B
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-55817.1193
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
608491.9244
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:rsafs|5Y
RSAFS
Retail Sales
Strongest positive