SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Light inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
UMCSENT
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-1%) is running 1.4σ away from the long-run average of -32%.
Consumer Sentiment (UMich) moves ~6 days before Unemployment Rate
Watch Consumer Sentiment (UMich) for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-10%) and fall (+6%) — reliable in both directions.
Flaky
Correlation swings widely across time windows — careful using this as a point estimate.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
-40%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment (UMich) shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with Consumer Sentiment (UMich) 6 days ago?"
664 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Consumer Sentiment (UMich) shifted 6 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-32%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-39% → -25%
Likely range
R²
10.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
47.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
670
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
670 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
938
671
Normalized
938
671
Prepared
938
671
Aligned
670
670
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
155 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
269
A: 268 / B: 1
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
37
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.4755
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
99.3038
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:umcsent|fred:unrate|5Y
UMCSENT
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
Strongest positive