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Correlation
of values
-55%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
415
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Retail Sales moves ~18 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch Retail Sales for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-55%
Based on values
95% CI
-61% → -48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
415 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
415
675
Normalized
415
675
Prepared
415
675
Aligned
415
415
Invalid removed
R²(i)
30%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
415
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-61%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with Consumer Sentiment 18 months from now?"
397 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
60 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
260
A: 0 / B: 260
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 415 raw → 415 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
103.6117
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-rsafs_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y