SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Retail Sales
RSAFS
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
UMCSENT
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+74%) than when both rise (+0%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-52%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
411 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Consumer Sentiment (UMich) at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-52%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-59% → -45%
Likely range
R²
27.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
49.9%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
411
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
411 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
411
671
Normalized
411
671
Prepared
411
671
Aligned
411
411
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
87 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+74%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
260
A: 0 / B: 260
Series A
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Series B
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
102.8593
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:rsafs|fred:umcsent|5Y
UMCSENT
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
Strongest positive