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Correlation
of values
-54%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
413
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Retail Sales moves ~18 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch Retail Sales for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-54%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
413 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
413
673
Normalized
413
673
Prepared
413
673
Aligned
413
413
Invalid removed
29%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
413
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-60%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with Consumer Sentiment 18 months from now?"
395 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+18%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
62 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
260
A: 0 / B: 260
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 413 raw → 413 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
103.3056
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-rsafs_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y