SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 54% of the time
Moderate positive
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+87%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of +44%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+6%) and fall (-12%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
597 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y-2Y Yield Spread at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+44%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+38% → +51%
Likely range
R²
19.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
54.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
597
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
597 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
938
12,474
Normalized
938
12,474
Prepared
938
2,605
Aligned
597
597
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
78 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,349
A: 341 / B: 2008
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,474 raw → 2,605 prepared
Sign agreement
82.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2295
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.5412
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:t10y2y|fred:unrate|5Y
T10Y2Y
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Strongest positive