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Correlation
of values
+45%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
600
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~20% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+45%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
600 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
12,520
Normalized
941
12,520
Prepared
941
602
Aligned
600
600
Invalid removed
20%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
600
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+45%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
600 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
343
A: 341 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,520 raw → 602 prepared
Sign agreement
83.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2325
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.5584
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-t10y2y_fred-unrate_monthly_5y