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Correlation
of values
+38%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
657
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~10 months before Housing Starts
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on Housing Starts.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on values
95% CI
+31% → +44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
657 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
675
Normalized
811
675
Prepared
811
675
Aligned
657
657
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
657
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with Consumer Sentiment 10 months ago?"
573 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+60%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
26 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
172
A: 154 / B: 18
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
67
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0139
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
64.7439
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y