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Correlation
of values
+38%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
655
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~10 months before Housing Starts
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on Housing Starts.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
655 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
673
Normalized
809
673
Prepared
809
673
Aligned
655
655
Invalid removed
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
655
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with Consumer Sentiment 10 months ago?"
571 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
172
A: 154 / B: 18
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
65
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0139
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
64.8855
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y