SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-18%) is running 1.4σ away from the long-run average of -65%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-11%) and fall (+1%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-65%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
230 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Real Personal Consumption at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-65%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-72% → -57%
Likely range
R²
42.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
43.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
230
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
230 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
938
231
Normalized
938
231
Prepared
938
231
Aligned
230
230
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
154 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
709
A: 708 / B: 1
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-521.2502
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
16259.5911
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:pcec96|fred:unrate|5Y
PCEC96
Real Personal Consumption
Strongest positive