Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
234
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before Real Personal Consumption
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on Real Personal Consumption.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
-78% → -65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
234 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
235
Normalized
943
235
Prepared
943
235
Aligned
234
234
Invalid removed
R²(i)
52%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
234
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with Real Personal Consumption 18 months from now?"
207 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+72%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+93%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
148 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
710
A: 709 / B: 1
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 235 raw → 235 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-987.7432
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
75818.0268
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y