Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
232
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before Real Personal Consumption
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on Real Personal Consumption.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
232 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
233
Normalized
941
233
Prepared
941
233
Aligned
232
232
Invalid removed
51%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
232
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with Real Personal Consumption 18 months from now?"
207 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+72%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+93%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
145 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
710
A: 709 / B: 1
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 233 raw → 233 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-970.7132
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
74723.8830
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y