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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
796
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~11 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch Building Permits for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
796 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
797
Normalized
941
797
Prepared
941
797
Aligned
796
796
Invalid removed
12%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
796
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with Building Permits 11 months ago?"
778 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-58%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-57%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 145 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
49
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-77.3443
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1827.4403
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-unrate_monthly_5y