SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Light inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
Building Permits
PERMIT
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-66%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of -35%.
Building Permits moves ~6 days before Unemployment Rate
Watch Building Permits for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (-11%) vs when both rise (+31%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with Building Permits 6 days ago?"
788 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Building Permits shifted 6 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-35%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-41% → -29%
Likely range
R²
12.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
48.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
794
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
794 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
938
795
Normalized
938
795
Prepared
938
795
Aligned
794
794
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
148 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 144 / B: 1
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
PERMIT
FRED · 795 raw → 795 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
48
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-77.3320
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1827.3199
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:permit|fred:unrate|5Y