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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
233
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real Personal Consumption moves ~12 months before 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
233 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,520
233
Normalized
12,520
233
Prepared
602
233
Aligned
233
233
Invalid removed
52%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
233
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
-84%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Real Personal Consumption 12 months ago?"
221 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
-84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
81 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
127 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
369
A: 369 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,520 raw → 602 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 233 raw → 233 prepared
Sign agreement
87.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1362.2994
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14688.6059
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-pcec96_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y