SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+74%) is 2.2σ from the long-run average of -72% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Real Personal Consumption moves ~12 weeks before 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (-28%) than when both rise (+2%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-85%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Real Personal Consumption 12 weeks ago?"
219 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Real Personal Consumption shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-72%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-77% → -65%
Likely range
R²
51.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
45.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
231
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
231 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,475
231
Normalized
12,475
231
Prepared
2,605
231
Aligned
231
231
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
82 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-28%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-32%
126 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,374
A: 2374 / B: 0
Series A
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,475 raw → 2,605 prepared
Series B
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Sign agreement
86.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1330.5741
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14621.4956
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:pcec96|fred:t10y2y|5Y
PCEC96
Real Personal Consumption
Strongest positive