SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 46% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+90%) is running 1.3σ away from the long-run average of +8%.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (-33%) than when both rise (+0%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+8%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
598 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Real Disposable Income at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+8%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+0% → +16%
Likely range
R²
0.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
45.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
598
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
598 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,475
807
Normalized
12,475
807
Prepared
2,605
807
Aligned
598
598
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-33%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
146 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,216
A: 2007 / B: 209
Series A
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,475 raw → 2,605 prepared
Series B
DSPIC96
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
82.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
352.1721
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10114.9308
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dspic96|fred:t10y2y|5Y
DSPIC96
Real Disposable Income
Strongest positive