SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 45% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
Industrial Production
INDPRO
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+71%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of +15%.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread moves ~12 weeks before Industrial Production
Watch 10Y-2Y Yield Spread for an early read on Industrial Production.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+49%) than when both rise (-15%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+20%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Industrial Production shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Industrial Production 12 weeks from now?"
586 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Industrial Production shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+15%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+7% → +23%
Likely range
R²
2.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
44.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
598
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
598 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,475
1,287
Normalized
12,475
1,287
Prepared
2,605
1,287
Aligned
598
598
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+49%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
143 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,696
A: 2007 / B: 689
Series A
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,475 raw → 2,605 prepared
Series B
INDPRO
FRED · 1,287 raw → 1,287 prepared
Sign agreement
82.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.4047
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
77.3444
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:indpro|fred:t10y2y|5Y
INDPRO
Industrial Production
Strongest positive