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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
413
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
413 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,520
413
Normalized
12,520
413
Prepared
602
413
Aligned
413
413
Invalid removed
11%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
413
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
413 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+44%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
189
A: 189 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,520 raw → 602 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 413 raw → 413 prepared
Sign agreement
87.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-56596.2728
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
443318.8826
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-rsafs_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y