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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
600
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~17 months before 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
600 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,520
809
Normalized
12,520
809
Prepared
602
809
Aligned
600
600
Invalid removed
11%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
600
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-52%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
Housing Starts shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Housing Starts 17 months ago?"
583 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 2 / B: 209
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,520 raw → 602 prepared
Series B
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
83.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
53
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-135.6743
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1512.7453
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y