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Correlation
of values
+99%
In sync
of periods
75%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
234
These move in the same direction about 75% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~97% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
75%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+99%
Based on values
95% CI
+98% → +99%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
234 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
235
1,002
Normalized
235
1,002
Prepared
235
1,002
Aligned
234
234
Invalid removed
R²(i)
97%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
234
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+99%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
234 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+99%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+99%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
161 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+87%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
59 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
769
A: 1 / B: 768
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 235 raw → 235 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,002 raw → 1,002 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
490.1534
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2840991.0339
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-pcec96_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y