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Correlation
of values
-32%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
810
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~10 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
810 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
811
Normalized
943
811
Prepared
943
811
Aligned
810
810
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
810
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Housing Starts shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with Housing Starts 10 months ago?"
791 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
134
A: 133 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
95
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-70.4089
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1842.2260
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-unrate_monthly_5y