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Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
713
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
713 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
3,104
Normalized
941
3,104
Prepared
941
714
Aligned
713
713
Invalid removed
30%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
713
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
713 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+99%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
229
A: 228 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 714 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
69553.3363
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-51472.8560
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_fred-unrate_monthly_5y