SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 59% of the time
Moderate positive
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-4%) is running 1.3σ away from the long-run average of +54%.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (+59%) vs when both rise (+98%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
710 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Initial Jobless Claims at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+54%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+49% → +59%
Likely range
R²
29.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
59.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
710
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
710 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
938
3,095
Normalized
938
3,095
Prepared
938
712
Aligned
710
710
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+98%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+59%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
230
A: 228 / B: 2
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 712 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
69481.8515
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-50915.9238
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:icsa|fred:unrate|5Y
ICSA
Initial Jobless Claims