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Correlation
of values
+37%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
653
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~11 months before Building Permits
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on Building Permits.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
653 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
673
Normalized
797
673
Prepared
797
673
Aligned
653
653
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
653
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with Consumer Sentiment 11 months ago?"
570 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+19%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
164
A: 144 / B: 20
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
37
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0135
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
65.6886
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y