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Correlation
of values
+36%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
655
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~11 months before Building Permits
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on Building Permits.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on values
95% CI
+30% → +43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
655 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
675
Normalized
799
675
Prepared
799
675
Aligned
655
655
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
655
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with Consumer Sentiment 11 months ago?"
572 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+47%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-78%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
164
A: 144 / B: 20
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
37
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0135
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
65.6096
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y