SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+2%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of -66%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+13%) and fall (+13%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
770 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Total Consumer Credit at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-66%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-70% → -62%
Likely range
R²
43.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
52.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
770
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
770 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,066
998
Normalized
16,066
998
Prepared
3,357
998
Aligned
770
770
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
112 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,815
A: 2587 / B: 228
Series A
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Series B
TOTALSL
FRED · 998 raw → 998 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-342516.8982
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3595364.7330
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:totalsl|5Y
TOTALSL
Total Consumer Credit
Strongest positive