SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 72% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+81%) is running 1.2σ away from the long-run average of +99%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+84%) and fall (+80%) — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
Correlation drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+99%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,875 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+99%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+99% → +99%
Likely range
R²
97.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
72.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,875
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,875 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,066
2,875
Normalized
16,066
2,875
Prepared
3,357
2,875
Aligned
2,875
2,875
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+84%
108 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+80%
113 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
482
A: 482 / B: 0
Series A
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
160
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0076
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7161
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:mortgage30us|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive