SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Real GDP
GDPC1
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Real GDP moves ~12 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch Real GDP for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-1%) and fall (-13%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-79%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Real GDP today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks from now?"
208 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-74%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-80% → -67%
Likely range
R²
54.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
47.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
220
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
220 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
317
2,875
Normalized
317
2,875
Prepared
317
2,875
Aligned
220
220
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
90 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
115 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,752
A: 97 / B: 2655
Series A
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.5448
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:gdpc1|fred:mortgage30us|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive