SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 72% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+77%) and fall (+78%) — reliable in both directions.
Flaky
Correlation swings widely across time windows — careful using this as a point estimate.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,605 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+97%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+97% → +97%
Likely range
R²
94.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
71.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,605
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,605 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,474
2,875
Normalized
12,474
2,875
Prepared
2,605
2,875
Aligned
2,605
2,605
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+77%
103 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+78%
112 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
270
A: 0 / B: 270
Series A
DGS2
FRED · 12,474 raw → 2,605 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
98
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8827
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2426
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs2|fred:mortgage30us|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive