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Correlation
of values
+30%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
600
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~18 months before 2Y Treasury Yield
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on 2Y Treasury Yield.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
600 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,519
809
Normalized
12,519
809
Prepared
602
809
Aligned
600
600
Invalid removed
9%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
600
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Housing Starts shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 2Y Treasury Yield today line up with Housing Starts 18 months ago?"
582 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-55%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-19%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 2 / B: 209
Series A
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,519 raw → 602 prepared
Series B
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
49
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
31.5690
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1241.1445
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs2_fred-houst_monthly_5y