SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 49% of the time
Light positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
Housing Starts
HOUST
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~12 weeks before 2Y Treasury Yield
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on 2Y Treasury Yield.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-11%) and fall (+14%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+41%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Housing Starts shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 2Y Treasury Yield today line up with Housing Starts 12 weeks ago?"
586 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Housing Starts shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+30%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+22% → +37%
Likely range
R²
8.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
49.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
598
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
598 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,474
807
Normalized
12,474
807
Prepared
2,605
807
Aligned
598
598
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
125 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,216
A: 2007 / B: 209
Series A
DGS2
FRED · 12,474 raw → 2,605 prepared
Series B
HOUST
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
52
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
30.5299
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1246.4760
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs2|fred:houst|5Y
HOUST
Housing Starts
Strongest positive