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Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
663
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~84% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
2,884
Normalized
864
2,884
Prepared
864
664
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
84%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
663 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
202
A: 201 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 664 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
44
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7568
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.0132
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-mortgage30us_monthly_5y