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Correlation
of values
+97%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
601
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~95% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
601 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
12,519
Normalized
864
12,519
Prepared
864
602
Aligned
601
601
Invalid removed
95%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
601
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
601 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+83%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
264
A: 263 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,519 raw → 602 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
50
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9122
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7194
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs2_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y