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Correlation
of values
-64%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
601
These move in the same direction about 32% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-64%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
601 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
12,520
Normalized
864
12,520
Prepared
864
602
Aligned
601
601
Invalid removed
40%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
601
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
601 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+69%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-94%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
264
A: 263 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,520 raw → 602 prepared
Sign agreement
83.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1479
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5344
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y