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Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
233
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real Personal Consumption moves ~18 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
233 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
233
Normalized
864
233
Prepared
864
233
Aligned
233
233
Invalid removed
30%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
233
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+82%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with Real Personal Consumption 18 months ago?"
215 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+47%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
631
A: 631 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 233 raw → 233 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
513.9877
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
12439.7531
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y