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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
809
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
809 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
809
Normalized
864
809
Prepared
864
809
Aligned
809
809
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
22%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
809
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
809 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
55
A: 55 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-817.8325
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9681.6213
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y