SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 55% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2025, reserves were 19.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.1 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
XOM moves ~12 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch XOM for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+2%) and fall (+4%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+85%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Exxon Mobil Corporation today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks from now?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+80%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+75% → +84%
Likely range
R²
63.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
55.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,875
Normalized
1,255
2,875
Prepared
261
2,875
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
114 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 0 / B: 2614
Series A
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0495
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8137
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:mortgage30us|stock:xom|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive