SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+10%) and fall (-12%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
659 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Total Consumer Credit at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-72%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-75% → -68%
Likely range
R²
51.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
48.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
659
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
659 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,875
998
Normalized
2,875
998
Prepared
2,875
998
Aligned
659
659
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
109 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
119 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,555
A: 2216 / B: 339
Series A
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Series B
TOTALSL
FRED · 998 raw → 998 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-338600.1917
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4459969.1985
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:mortgage30us|fred:totalsl|5Y
TOTALSL
Total Consumer Credit
Strongest positive