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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
661
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
661 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,884
1,000
Normalized
2,884
1,000
Prepared
664
1,000
Aligned
661
661
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
51%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
661
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-71%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
661 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
342
A: 3 / B: 339
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 664 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-339751.7764
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4476806.9966
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y