SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Real GDP
GDPC1
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+45%) is running 1.8σ away from the long-run average of -61%.
Real GDP moves ~12 weeks before 10Y Treasury Yield
Watch Real GDP for an early read on 10Y Treasury Yield.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-2%) and fall (+12%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-70%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
10Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Real GDP today line up with 10Y Treasury Yield 12 weeks from now?"
245 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-61%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-69% → -53%
Likely range
R²
37.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
54.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
257
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
257 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
317
16,066
Normalized
317
16,066
Prepared
317
3,357
Aligned
257
257
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
123 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
114 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,160
A: 60 / B: 3100
Series A
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.5674
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:gdpc1|5Y