SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 51% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-57%) is running 1.2σ away from the long-run average of +16%.
Real Personal Consumption moves ~12 weeks before 10Y Treasury Yield
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on 10Y Treasury Yield.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+25%) than when both rise (+3%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+31%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 10Y Treasury Yield today line up with Real Personal Consumption 12 weeks ago?"
219 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Real Personal Consumption shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+16%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+3% → +28%
Likely range
R²
2.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
51.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
231
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
231 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,066
231
Normalized
16,066
231
Prepared
3,357
231
Aligned
231
231
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
92 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-19%
112 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,126
A: 3126 / B: 0
Series A
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Series B
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
260.8827
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
12503.0813
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:pcec96|5Y
PCEC96
Real Personal Consumption
Strongest positive