SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 56% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+85%) is 2.4σ from the long-run average of -46% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-46%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
807 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Funds Rate at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-46%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-51% → -40%
Likely range
R²
21.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
56.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
807
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
807 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
861
Normalized
807
861
Prepared
807
861
Aligned
807
807
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+28%
124 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
54
A: 0 / B: 54
Series A
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 861 raw → 861 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0500
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.8347
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:fedfunds|fred:pcepilfe|5Y