SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+15%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of -54%.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
771 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y Treasury Yield at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-54%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-59% → -49%
Likely range
R²
29.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
52.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
771
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
771 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
807
16,066
Normalized
807
16,066
Prepared
807
3,357
Aligned
771
771
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
130 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
116 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,622
A: 36 / B: 2586
Series A
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0497
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.9778
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:pcepilfe|5Y