SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
What to Watch
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-76%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
598 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 2Y Treasury Yield at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-76%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-79% → -72%
Likely range
R²
57.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
598
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
598 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
807
12,474
Normalized
807
12,474
Prepared
807
2,605
Aligned
598
598
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
126 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
119 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,216
A: 209 / B: 2007
Series A
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
DGS2
FRED · 12,474 raw → 2,605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1115
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.4472
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs2|fred:pcepilfe|5Y
DGS2
2Y Treasury Yield
Strongest positive