SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 93% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+100%) is running 1.0σ away from the long-run average of +100%.
Rock solid
Correlation barely moves across time windows — treat this as a reliable relationship.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+100%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
807 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Core PCE Price Index at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+100%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+100% → +100%
Likely range
R²
99.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
93.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
807
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
807 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
807
Normalized
807
807
Prepared
807
807
Aligned
807
807
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+91%
232 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+12%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
PCEPI
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9898
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7780
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:pcepi|fred:pcepilfe|5Y
PCEPILFE
Core PCE Price Index
Strongest positive