SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 82% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
What to Watch
Mostly stable
Correlation drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
807 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Nonfarm Payrolls at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+98%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+98% → +99%
Likely range
R²
96.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
81.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
807
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
807 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
1,047
Normalized
807
1,047
Prepared
807
1,047
Aligned
807
807
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+28%
201 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
240
A: 0 / B: 240
Series A
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
947.3028
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
50047.7759
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:payems|fred:pcepilfe|5Y
PAYEMS
Nonfarm Payrolls
Strongest positive