SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Near-zero inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
Housing Starts
HOUST
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-71%) is running 1.8σ away from the long-run average of -4%.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+52%) than when both rise (+31%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-4%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
806 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Housing Starts at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-4%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-11% → +2%
Likely range
R²
0.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
806
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
806 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
938
807
Normalized
938
807
Prepared
938
807
Aligned
806
806
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+52%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
144 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
133
A: 132 / B: 1
Series A
CIVPART
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
HOUST
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
94
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6.2944
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1830.4983
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:civpart|fred:houst|5Y
HOUST
Housing Starts
Strongest positive