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Correlation
of values
+69%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
942
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~47% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+69%
Based on values
95% CI
+65% → +72%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
942 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
942
1,291
Normalized
942
1,291
Prepared
942
1,291
Aligned
942
942
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
47%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
942
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+69%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
942 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-80%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-14%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
349
A: 0 / B: 349
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 942 raw → 942 prepared
Series B
Industrial Production
INDPRO
FRED · 1,291 raw → 1,291 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
7.2927
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-396.7780
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-indpro_monthly_5y