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Correlation
of values
+75%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
235
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~56% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+75%
Based on values
95% CI
+68% → +80%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
235 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
235
Normalized
811
235
Prepared
811
235
Aligned
235
235
Invalid removed
R²(i)
56%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
235
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+75%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
235 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+37%
98 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+68%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
106 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
576
A: 576 / B: 0
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 235 raw → 235 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.1185
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8626.1861
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y