SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Light inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Housing Starts
HOUST
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+86%) is 2.5σ from the long-run average of -27% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+71%) than when both rise (-12%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
806 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Total Consumer Credit at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-27%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-33% → -20%
Likely range
R²
7.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
52.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
806
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
806 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
998
Normalized
807
998
Prepared
807
998
Aligned
806
806
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
112 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+71%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
126 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
193
A: 1 / B: 192
Series A
HOUST
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
TOTALSL
FRED · 998 raw → 998 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1091.7609
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3095062.3461
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:houst|fred:totalsl|5Y
TOTALSL
Total Consumer Credit
Strongest positive