SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 56% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-52%) is running 1.9σ away from the long-run average of +71%.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+95%) than when both rise (+58%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+71%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
938 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Labor Force Participation at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+71%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+68% → +74%
Likely range
R²
50.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
56.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
938
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
938 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,047
938
Normalized
1,047
938
Prepared
1,047
938
Aligned
938
938
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+58%
95 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+95%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
131 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
109
A: 109 / B: 0
Series A
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Series B
CIVPART
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
57.1157
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:civpart|fred:payems|5Y
CIVPART
Labor Force Participation
Strongest positive