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Correlation
of values
+57%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
940
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before US CPI
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on US CPI.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+57%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
940 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
952
941
Normalized
952
941
Prepared
952
941
Aligned
940
940
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
32%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
940
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+62%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Labor Force Participation shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US CPI today line up with Labor Force Participation 18 months ago?"
915 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+63%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13
A: 12 / B: 1
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 952 raw → 952 prepared
Series B
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0182
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
60.5332
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-cpiaucsl_monthly_5y