SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Retail Sales
RSAFS
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
30Y Mortgage Rate moves ~12 weeks before Retail Sales
Watch 30Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Retail Sales.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+17%) and fall (-1%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-59%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks ago?"
399 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-50%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-57% → -42%
Likely range
R²
24.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
52.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
411
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
411 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
411
2,875
Normalized
411
2,875
Prepared
411
2,875
Aligned
411
411
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,464
A: 0 / B: 2464
Series A
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.8153
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:mortgage30us|fred:rsafs|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive