SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 85% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
US GDP
GDP
Retail Sales
RSAFS
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+99%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of +100%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+85%) and fall (+100%) — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
Correlation barely moves across time windows — treat this as a reliable relationship.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+100%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
137 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Retail Sales at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+100%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+99% → +100%
Likely range
R²
99.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
85.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
137
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
137 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
317
411
Normalized
317
411
Prepared
317
411
Aligned
137
137
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+85%
111 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+100%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
454
A: 180 / B: 274
Series A
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
23.1333
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
19996.5860
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:gdp|fred:rsafs|5Y
RSAFS
Retail Sales
Strongest positive