SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 52% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+76%) is running 1.2σ away from the long-run average of +19%.
2Y Treasury Yield moves ~12 weeks before Labor Force Participation
Watch 2Y Treasury Yield for an early read on Labor Force Participation.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+7%) and fall (+1%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+28%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
2Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with 2Y Treasury Yield 12 weeks ago?"
585 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 2Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+19%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+11% → +27%
Likely range
R²
3.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
51.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
597
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
597 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
938
12,474
Normalized
938
12,474
Prepared
938
2,605
Aligned
597
597
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,349
A: 341 / B: 2008
Series A
CIVPART
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
DGS2
FRED · 12,474 raw → 2,605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3965
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-20.6839
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:civpart|fred:dgs2|5Y
DGS2
2Y Treasury Yield
Strongest positive