SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 65% of the time
Light inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+83%) is 2.1σ from the long-run average of -28% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+0%) and fall (+7%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
861 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Funds Rate at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-28%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-34% → -22%
Likely range
R²
8.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
65.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
861
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
861 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,047
861
Normalized
1,047
861
Prepared
1,047
861
Aligned
861
861
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
117 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
186
A: 186 / B: 0
Series A
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 861 raw → 861 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7054
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:fedfunds|fred:payems|5Y