SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 84% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Real GDP
GDPC1
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+78%) and fall (+98%) — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
Correlation barely moves across time windows — treat this as a reliable relationship.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
317 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Nonfarm Payrolls at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+97%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+97% → +98%
Likely range
R²
94.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
84.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
317
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
317 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
317
1,047
Normalized
317
1,047
Prepared
317
1,047
Aligned
317
317
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+78%
191 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+98%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
730
A: 0 / B: 730
Series A
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
5.5119
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
41863.8515
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:gdpc1|fred:payems|5Y
PAYEMS
Nonfarm Payrolls
Strongest positive