SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 55% of the time
Near-zero positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
UMCSENT
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+66%) is running 1.4σ away from the long-run average of +2%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-3%) and fall (+2%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+2%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
585 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Consumer Sentiment (UMich) at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+2%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-6% → +10%
Likely range
R²
0.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
55.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
585
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
585 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,474
671
Normalized
12,474
671
Prepared
2,605
671
Aligned
585
585
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,106
A: 2020 / B: 86
Series A
DGS2
FRED · 12,474 raw → 2,605 prepared
Series B
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0824
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
83.6235
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs2|fred:umcsent|5Y
UMCSENT
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
Strongest positive